The financial markets and economic situation may be morphing into a potential severe credit event. Many have been insanely reaching for yield in the bond markets. The financial markets today are being driven by the Russia-Saudi Arabia geopolitical and oil market developments. This is all likely a movement to get removal of U.S. sanctions off Read more »
In addition to the coronavirus and its implications, the U.S. dollar is the big issue – ideally the dollar needs to weaken relative to emerging market currencies. Suggest watching both FRA Roundtable Insight podcasts from last week, with Dr. Lacy Hunt and with the 4 Horsemen: David Rosenberg, Yra Harris, Peter Boockvar and Jim Bianco. Read more »
Great Blog Post – latest thoughts from Yra – link here to read Given the demand shock spreading globally, in particular due to the coronavirus effects on the economy and financial markets, there is a potential for rising deflation in a world beset with massive debt. It is therefore highly suggested for the Fed to Read more »
From Yra’s Latest Blog Post: “The GOLD /CURRENCIES making new highs is indicative NOT OF INFLATION SCARCITY BUT OF CENTRAL BANKS LOSING CONTROL IN THE FACE OF A HEIGHTENED FEAR OF DEFLATION. It is the fear of deflation in a world saddled with record amounts of DEBT, which the International Institute of Finance (IIF) has cited at more than Read more »
In addition to the Coronavirus (CoV) development, there are many geo-political events happening including but not limited to the Italian elections and the U.S. Embassy attack. It is difficult to assess the effects of these on the financial markets and economy. Overall suggesting patience to see how things evolve in this regard. The Bank of Read more »
Major central banks are not likely to do much change to existing monetary policies this week. There is likely to be a lift in the euro as some outstanding trade issues between Europe and the U.S. get some resolution. Europe will likely see some capital inflows as it moves towards fiscal stimulus, something that is Read more »
The current theme in the equity markets is a relative value play; likely able to get better value outside of the the U.S. equity markets. Copper and the industrial metals are indicating likely infrastructure-based fiscal stimulus – likely to be from countries outside of the U.S. as the U.S. is not likely to have infrastructure-based Read more »
Background: The continued increase in BOND PRICES as markets turn the tables on long-held asset management. As one analyst /trader noted, it used to be standard practice to buy BONDS for income and stocks for capital appreciation. It seems that the actions of central banks have led to the opposite market behavior as BOND prices rise in anticipation of further central Read more »
The general narrative of the UK leaving the EU is that it will be detrimental to the UK. However this may not be what the markets are indicating. The British Pound Sterling currency is weakening – keep an eye on the EUR/GBP cross exchange rate in this regard. British bonds have been doing well, and Read more »