“Watch the yield curves as a barometer for investor sentiment on any outlook for a COVID stimulus pact .. The ECB and the FED would do well to disappoint markets in an effort reinject some pain for investors. Capitalism demands it. In addition, central bank inaction would force governments to rely more on fiscal stimulus to generate activity, something all the Read more »
The risk-on, risk-off paradigm may be over. The recent relationships using by algorithmic trading systems may be breaking down. The Federal Reserve is in a very difficult situation – will they move to raise rates at this point? The 2nd round of Covid-19 government stimulus may not happen but it does, it will likely propel Read more »
The U.S. Congress will likely come up with a fiscal package that will be acceptable to all parties and stakeholders. This will put the Federal Reserve on the “hot seat” at they are employment focused. It is worthwhile to revisit the work of Economist Carmen Reinhart on financial repression as this is intensifying globally. Bonds Read more »
Reference recent comments and actions by Warren Buffett – selling banks and going into gold mining! The big thing to watch in the financial markets is the trend of real yields in currencies. Real yields = Nominal Yield – Inflation Rate. The Japanese Yen is a current to watch and important at this juncture – Read more »
The USD index is weakening. This is in the interests of the global financial system. U.S. municipalities are likely to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve. The IMF should sell some of its gold holdings to help emerging markets. Precious metals are strong.
Platinum is an interesting precious metal to keep an eye on. It has been under stress for quite some time now. There is a high value taken in Asia on Platinum. In Europe – keep an eye on the Pandemic Recovery Program. The European bond market is saying this Program will likely be advanced. Also Read more »
The U.S. Dollar is weaker, currently today at resistance, and the key on the movement is the Japanese Yen which has been a laggard on the major world currencies. The equity markets are getting bolstered by massive global stimulus, reference the talk coming out of the U.S. Administration and China’s markets. Copper is moving higher Read more »
A strong dollar policy is ill-timed, ill-conceived and ill-formed. The dollar is not a trade issue now, it is a global financial system issue. “In my opinion, a STRONG DOLLAR at this juncture would merely put more downward pressure on global prices as producers sell production at lower prices in an effort to generate needed dollars Read more »
The U.S. Administration is talking about a strong U.S. dollar at the worst possible time. At this point, the dollar is more a finance issue than a trade issue, and the global financial system is extremely fragile with a strong U.S. dollar. Europe continues to push for a unified European bond. Oil today is Read more »
This is MASS LIQUIDATION! As traders and investors it’s our job to be cognizant of all the animals in the jungle – “When the elephants retrace their steps from the watering hole, small animals can get crushed.” – Victor Niederhoffer That sums up today’s morning trading activity. If the lockdowns, cancellations and coronavirus-related measures continue, Read more »